AI Will Make the Economy Richer by 2030, but Not Your Paycheck

Anthropic, the company behind Claude, modeled three futures for 2030. In all three, the economy gets richer. But not your paycheck.

The report is called Scenarios for our Economic Future. It’s built on an economic model by Anton Korinek, Chad Jones and a team of researchers, plus a survey of more than 10,000 Americans about how fast they think AI will move.

Prefer to watch? Here’s my breakdown on Instagram.

I’m going to break down all three. But first, let’s look at whose pay comes out ahead.

What are Anthropic’s three 2030 scenarios?

Anthropic calls them modest, substantial and extreme. Compared to a future without AI, US GDP in 2030 grows 1.6%, 8.3% or 32.4%, according to the report. That’s a $34.1 trillion, $36.3 trillion or $44.4 trillion economy.

The typical survey answer landed closest to the substantial scenario. About 1 in 10 people answered in a way that matched the extreme one.

These are scenarios, not predictions. Anthropic says actual outcomes may differ materially.

Whose pay comes out ahead by 2030?

Average wages rise in all three scenarios. But the report says that increase is “concentrated in occupations outside of knowledge work.”

If you work with your hands, as an electrician, a nurse or a construction worker, your pay goes up. Office workers, not so much.

If you are one, keep reading. I’m going to show you how to come out winning.

What happens to knowledge workers’ pay?

It depends on the scenario. Compared to a future without AI, knowledge workers’ pay grows a little in the modest scenario, stays essentially flat in the substantial one, and falls by more than 10% in the extreme one.

Why? With AI, the paperwork, the writing and the admin work get done so much faster that more projects get created. And those projects need people to do the hands-on delivery.

The report’s own example is construction. When design and permitting get faster, more buildings get started, and more buildings need more people to build them.

Where does the money go instead?

This is the part of the report that should shape your next move.

Today, about 60 cents of every dollar the economy produces goes to workers. The other 40 cents goes to capital. By 2030, workers’ share goes down in all three scenarios: to 59.4%, 56.1% or 45.2%.

In the extreme scenario, owners get more than half of every dollar.

Who are the owners in the AI economy?

The money is shifting to owners. Yes, that means the big corporations.

But here’s my take, and I’ve been saying it for a long time: it’s the startups and the small businesses, teams of 5, 10, maybe a little bit more, that are going to service the big corporations and their customers.

Also my view, not the report’s: entry-level and middle management positions, as we know them, are going to be a thing of the past.

What’s changing: getting paid for the work vs. owning the work

For most of our careers, the deal was simple. Learn a skill, get a job, get paid for doing the work.

AI changes who captures the value. When AI does more of the work, more of the money goes to whoever owns the business, and the AI, that does it.

That’s the opportunity. You don’t need a big company. You need something you own that businesses will pay for.

Your move: use AI to become an owner

This is my approach, based on the report’s finding that the money shifts from workers to owners.

1. Write down the skills you already get paid for. The writing, analysis, planning or admin work you do every day.
2. Pick one you could sell to businesses as a service. Let AI handle the writing, the paperwork and the admin, so you can deliver more with less time.
3. Start small. One offer, one type of customer, while you still have your paycheck.

Here's my job and the skills I use every day: [your role and skills]. Give me 3 services I could sell to businesses as an owner, not an employee, using AI. For each one, tell me who would pay for it, what AI would do, what I'd still do myself, and one first step I could take this week.

This one gives you leverage: you turn what you already know into something you own.

The economy is going to get richer either way. Make sure you’re on the winning end of it.

Once you have a service, you need customers. ChatifyIT builds a free tool for your ideal customer from one sentence, puts it on your link-in-bio page and collects every email, so you have people to sell to.